Coventry v Chelsea FA Cup Quarter Final

Chelsea are clearly the better team in this contest with Coventry. However, the FA Cup has a fine tradition for throwing up unusual results. If I intended to let this match go to full time, I'd bet on a Chelsea win... let's face it; you'd have to be mad (or a Coventry fan) not to.

FORM GUIDE - Last Five Results

Coventry
Mar 4: Coventry 1-2 Sheffield United
Feb 28: Norwich 1-2 Coventry
Feb 24: Coventry 1-0 Blackburn Rovers
Feb 21: Coventry 1-0 Birmingham
Feb 17: Burnley 1-1 Coventry

Chelsea
Mar 3: Portsmouth 0-1 Chelsea
Feb 28: Chelsea 2-1 Wigan Athletic
Feb 25: Chelsea 1-0 Juventus
Feb 21: Aston Villa 0-1 Chelsea
Feb 14: Watford 1-3 Chelsea

Chelsea are odds-on to win and that makes this game ideal for my Lay-the-Favourite bet and hope for a slow start and 0-0 at halftime. Then Back Chelsea a more favourable odds and make a modest profit. Things can go wrong with this type of bet and the risk is high, however the liability is low and my money is in-play.

That's the plan and here's my Betfair screen:

Betting on Test cricket is much like painting and then watching it dry. The whole process takes a long time to produce a result. Things can change quickly towards the end of any Test match, but as like the 4th Test a boring draw is the more likely outcome.

I delayed placing any kind of bet until after the lunch break in each match and then opted for "Lay the Draw". At first sight this might seem contradictory, as the more likely outcome WILL be a draw. However, I have a cunning plan this time around and don't intend to get caught slipping up again!

South Africa v Australia Lay the Draw £10 @ 1.88 Liability £8.80

West Indies v England Lay the Draw £10 @ 1.8 Liability £8

The £16.80 stake money will probably be unavailable for recycle until at least Sunday, which is another drawback when betting on Test cricket. Still, you never know and I can always use the rest of last night's winnings for my football bets tomorrow.

Stumps - Day 1
Australia 303/4 South Africa
Australia won the toss and elected to bat first.
BACK the Draw Odds 1.8 (no trade possible at this time)

After last night's disaster when my most expensive Lay bets went tits-up, I've decided to take the night off. There's not much of interest in-play tonight anyway.

I watched the replay of Spurs v Middlesbrough earlier today and things were a lot closer than the 4-0 final score might suggest.

Anyway, no point crying over spilt beer!

Mallorca v Barcelona WON £9.70
Blackburn v Everton WON £2.18

Tottenham v Middlesbrough LOST £11.85
Wigan v West Ham LOST £5.30
Man City v Aston Villa LOST £8.25
Tripolis v Panionios LOST £13.63

Profit & Loss for last night -£29.03

Quite why I put so much money on a Greek football match is a total mystery to me. I'd actually given up on the Lay bet on Mallorca when it got to the 85th minute and the score was still 1-0 and went to bed. Then found out via Skysports morning news that Barca had scored late and my Lay bet had been made. Probably the only lucky thing to have happened all night.

My profit and loss for football betting during the last 7 days is £4.30 so, it's back to stake building again, which can be painfully slow.

Took a punt on the Darts tonight and got a nice green book...

Wednesday night football can be a graveyard for football Lay bets on the favourite. However, the match between Spurs and Middlesbrough looks like it might be a very close match and with Spurs Lay at 1.9 it's just to tempting.

I intend to use the same system as last night. Hold the Lay until halftime if it stays at 0-0 and then trade out with a Back bet on Spurs or if Middlebrough score first, I'll close the bet immediately for a green probably favouring the draw. Of course, if Spurs score or go 2-0 up... then my bet goes tits-up. Liability is low and profits will probably be modest.

That's my plan and here's my initial screen:

The rest of the matches look to close to call with the exception of Newcastle and Man United. I think I'll wait until they go in-play before making any further bets.

Sunderland (Wonderland) visit Liverpool tonight in what should be a very hard-to-win match. However, Liverpool's home record is good and they've got pride at stake after last weekends disaster, which has virtually finished the title chase. Sunderland are mid-table and will welcome a point and be delight to swipe all three into the bag.

I'm going down the tried and tested route. Lay the odds on for minimum liability, trade out for minimum profits if the score is 0-0 after 35/45 minutes or sooner if Sunderland score first.

The match is live on Sky, so I can track progress in real time.

That's the plan and here's my initial screen:

Other Matches Tonight and Updates

While slumbering through the 4th Test on Sky, I casually flipped through the channels and found Atl Madrid v Barcelona were playing and the score was 1-2 with Barca odds on.

Lay Barca - Mad Jack Strikes AGAIN

This time it worked, as Atl Madrid scored early in the second half and I went green.

At first glance most people would agree that a Lay bet on Man United in the Carling Cup final today is an insane idea and waste of money. However, Fergusen has stated he will continue to use his second string as the starting line up keeping Ronaldo and Rooney in reserve.

It was only a few weeks ago that the same line up crashed 1-0 at Derby.

Spurs are a much better team and will be far harder opposition than Derby and Harry Rednapp will provide all the motivation needed to ensure the Spurs team are "up for it".

So, here's the thing. I don't expect Man United to lose, but I DO expect they will have a tough battle to the finish line.

Enough is Enough... my patience has been severley tested by the slow progress in the 4th Test in Barbados.

Therefore, I looked around for some bargains in tonight's Spanish football.

Ath Bilbao v Sevilla

I can actually watch THIS game live and adjust my bet by trading at any stage.

This is my opening screen:

Currently 20 minutes have been played and the score is 0-0 fingers crossed.

Day 1

Every Journey Begins With The First Step!

The first lesson I learnt from the three previous Test Matchs is to not place any bets until these four things are known:

1. Who won the Toss
2. The team line-up
3. State of the pitch
4. Six day weather forecast

The weather forecast is set to be sunny during the day and light rain during the night for all six days. So, that's not a factor to consider.

Local reports state the pitch actually has grass on it rather than baked earth. This is predicted to produce some bounce and favour fast bowlers. Over the six days there's bound to be some break up in the surface conditions. This might be an ongoing factor.

The last seven Tests at a ground affectionately referred to as the Mecca of West Indies cricket have all produced results.

West Indies have lost five of them though, they might end that spell and win the series.

The England team are desperate to win and have the ability if they play with aggression and a real desire to win.

I think a drawn Test to be most likely (said before the Toss).

The Toss will take place in about an hours time and I'll wait until then before deciding which way to "swing".

Once again, I Lay Chelsea at odds-on before kickoff and get a swift kick in the pants when they score early on.

Here's my opening screen:

Juventus played like a schoolboy team in the first half. Although they did have one good chance to score.

I've got a feeling things might turn around and they end up drawing... halftime now and time will tell. An early Juventus goal and my trade can be made. Back bet for Chelsea at halftime is 1.4 which gives me little option other than hold and see if my luck's in (smile) yet again!