Following on from my successful Portuguese minor league football experiment from last night; I decided to invest in today's (31:01:09) early doors match between Stoke & Manchester City.

The formula is the same.

The outcome is guaranteed!

Betfair opens a "market" for each event.

There after; greed takes over (oh, BF takes 5% of winning bets... and STAKE).

The very basic rule is to "BET HIGHEST POSSIBLE PRICE" >>> "LAY AT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE"

Here I present an alternative WHEN BETTING FOOTBALL.

"LAY THE DRAW" - GO INTO PLAY - "ADJUST ODDS AT 85 MINUTES"

If you don't have a Betfair account you can click the banner above... I'll get a small payment and YOU will ALSO!

NOTE:::: FROM HERE ON THE TALE IS TRUE ----- HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY 3 NIL-NIL DRAWS KILLED THE ACCOUNT. MY BIG MISTAKE WAS NOT BACKING A NIL-NIL SCORE

WARNING ---- THINGS CAN GO WRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN BACKING HIGH VOLUME MATCHES USING LOW VOLUME BETS ---- NIL-NIL DRAWS WILL KILL BOTH THE LAY & BET OPTIONS LEAVING YOU TOTALLY EXPOSED.

The bet looks like this:

OK... I'm backing either Stoke or Man City to win and get £20. If there's a DRAW; I lose £49.

This is a "punters bet". A shed load of things can go wrong and the outcome is uncertain.

If I'm lucky (not a regular occurrence) one or the other of the teams will take an unassailable lead and I will win £20 (Backers Stake) and no further action is required. If I'm unlucky (a regular occurrence) Stoke will kick-the-**** out of City and City will respond with a late equaliser.

THESE THINGS HAVE HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH DEVISTATING FINANCIAL CONCIQUENSES!

Fortunately, Betfair allows "In Play" betting...

So, if one team takes a lead NO PROBLEM - I still win £20 (layed the draw) my "cup is full" and the "job is done" at full time.

However, a trader would aim to at least have a FREE bet or "Be Green" (win no matter what the outcome OR you ARE a PUNTER) by backing the DRAW at a HIGHER price than the original Lay.

I normally prime my bet screen with an acceptable return on my investment and adjust odds & prices as circumstances dictate.

This is my trigger:

I can adjust these price "In Play" right up to full time and either dump the "lay bet" or take the GREEN.

The game is in play right now... my "trade" is certain!

The real hard work is watching the match and then changing the bet... not exactly digging a trench!

WHEN YOU TRADE - YOU TAKE THE MARGINS - SLOWLY, SLOWLY... :)

If you don't have a Betfair account you can click the banner above... I'll get a small payment and YOU will ALSO!

HALF TIME

Stoke are down to 10 men, score in the last seconds of the first half.

My screen looks like this:

I'm looking for a "Back" bet greater than 3.45 during the second half.

The real key to this trade is keeping the "Back Bet" in reserve.

If Stoke were to go on and score another goal... I win

If City equalise, the "Back" odds should increase beyond 3.45

WHATEVER HAPPENS ...***... I'LL CLOSE MY POSITION 10 MINUTES BEFORE FULL TIME

OK... I should have adjusted the the "GREEN" but at heart; I'm a punter!

WELL

That's my bet for one match.

As it turned out Stoke won 1 - 0 a VERY close run thing.

I closed my trade 8 minutes before full time; ensuring a profit of £2.85 with every chance of City scoring in the last minutes.

Sure, if I'd stayed with my original bet I'd be £20 up right now.

However, by trading "in the green" I just CAN NOT lose.

Are you a Punter or Trader?

I only wish my Father-in-Law was still alive... he would have loved the maths and trading at Betfair.

A Reality check - Things Will ALWAYS Go Wrong in the Most Unexpected Ways

Football results
Saturday, 31 January 2009
Barclays Premier League
Arsenal 0-0 West Ham (layed - TOTALLY EXPOSED AND STUFFED)
Aston Villa 0-0 Wigan (layed - TOTALLY EXPOSED AND STUFFED)
Middlesbrough 0-0 Blackburn (layed - TOTALLY EXPOSED AND STUFFED)

Yep, I got F****ed Up and lost ALL my hard won profits