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Slowing Things Down and Taking the Night Off

Written by Jack   
Thursday, 05 March 2009

After last night's disaster when my most expensive Lay bets went tits-up, I've decided to take the night off. There's not much of interest in-play tonight anyway.

I watched the replay of Spurs v Middlesbrough earlier today and things were a lot closer than the 4-0 final score might suggest.

Anyway, no point crying over spilt beer!

Mallorca v Barcelona WON £9.70
Blackburn v Everton WON £2.18

Tottenham v Middlesbrough LOST £11.85
Wigan v West Ham LOST £5.30
Man City v Aston Villa LOST £8.25
Tripolis v Panionios LOST £13.63

Profit & Loss for last night -£29.03

Quite why I put so much money on a Greek football match is a total mystery to me. I'd actually given up on the Lay bet on Mallorca when it got to the 85th minute and the score was still 1-0 and went to bed. Then found out via Skysports morning news that Barca had scored late and my Lay bet had been made. Probably the only lucky thing to have happened all night.

My profit and loss for football betting during the last 7 days is £4.30 so, it's back to stake building again, which can be painfully slow.

Took a punt on the Darts tonight and got a nice green book...

Last Seven Days Football Experiment Betting at Betfair

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Mallorca v Barcelona : 04-Mar-09 21:00 04-Mar-09 22:57 7.60
Soccer / Blackburn v Everton : 04-Mar-09 20:00 04-Mar-09 21:55 2.18
Soccer / Tottenham v Middlesbrough : 04-Mar-09 20:00 04-Mar-09 21:52 -11.85
Soccer / Wigan v West Ham : 04-Mar-09 19:45 04-Mar-09 21:44 -5.30
Soccer / Man City v Aston Villa : 04-Mar-09 19:45 04-Mar-09 21:38 -8.25
Soccer / Asteras Tripolis v Panionios : 04-Mar-09 14:00 04-Mar-09 15:56 -13.62
Soccer / Palmeiras v Colo Colo : 03-Mar-09 23:00 04-Mar-09 01:01 3.80
Soccer / Liverpool v Sunderland : 03-Mar-09 20:00 03-Mar-09 21:55 5.12
Soccer / Lazio v Juventus : 03-Mar-09 19:45 03-Mar-09 21:35 6.65
Soccer / Boulogne v Toulouse : 03-Mar-09 19:45 03-Mar-09 21:34 -3.30
Soccer / West Brom v Arsenal : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 03-Mar-09 19:45 03-Mar-09 20:31 8.74
Soccer / Mlada Boleslav v FC Brno : 02-Mar-09 16:15 02-Mar-09 18:11 -4.90
Soccer / Betis v Villarreal : 01-Mar-09 20:00 01-Mar-09 21:54 11.78
Soccer / Inter v Roma : 01-Mar-09 19:30 01-Mar-09 21:22 7.12
Soccer / Atl Madrid v Barcelona : 01-Mar-09 18:00 01-Mar-09 20:00 10.45
Soccer / Numancia v Deportivo : 01-Mar-09 16:00 01-Mar-09 17:51 7.60
Soccer / Santander v Osasuna : 01-Mar-09 16:00 01-Mar-09 17:50 -12.80
Soccer / W Bremen v B Munich : 01-Mar-09 16:00 01-Mar-09 17:50 1.42
Soccer / Man Utd v Tottenham : 01-Mar-09 15:00 01-Mar-09 16:53 -13.59
Soccer / Bolton v Newcastle : 01-Mar-09 13:00 01-Mar-09 14:58 -2.20
Soccer / Hull v Blackburn : 01-Mar-09 12:30 01-Mar-09 14:27 -5.00
Soccer / Racing Club v Argentinos Juniors : 28-Feb-09 23:30 01-Mar-09 01:53 4.75
Soccer / Espanyol v Real Madrid : 28-Feb-09 21:00 28-Feb-09 22:51 1.80
Soccer / Porto v Sp Lisbon : 28-Feb-09 20:30 28-Feb-09 22:29 -13.05
Soccer / Auxerre v Toulouse : 28-Feb-09 20:00 28-Feb-09 21:50 19.00
Soccer / Juventus v Napoli : 28-Feb-09 19:30 28-Feb-09 21:19 -4.11
Soccer / Ath Bilbao v Sevilla : 28-Feb-09 19:00 28-Feb-09 20:49 4.27
Soccer / Everton v West Brom : 28-Feb-09 12:45 28-Feb-09 14:39 2.33
Soccer / Polonia Warsaw v Legia Warsaw : 27-Feb-09 19:00 27-Feb-09 20:56 -14.00
Soccer / Wehen v Freiburg : 27-Feb-09 17:00 27-Feb-09 18:51 -5.10
Soccer / H Rostock v Rot-Weiss Ahlen : 27-Feb-09 17:00 27-Feb-09 18:51 -2.70
Soccer / Polonia Bytom v Wisla Krakow : 27-Feb-09 16:45 27-Feb-09 18:41 -1.79
Soccer / Man City v FC Kobenhavn : 26-Feb-09 19:45 26-Feb-09 21:40 1.52
Soccer / Stuttgart v Zenit St Petersburg : 26-Feb-09 19:45 26-Feb-09 21:39 4.18
Soccer / Udinese v Lech Poznan : 26-Feb-09 19:45 26-Feb-09 21:36 5.70
Soccer / Galatasaray v Bordeaux : 26-Feb-09 18:30 26-Feb-09 21:30 7.60
Soccer / Twente v Marseille : 26-Feb-09 17:30 26-Feb-09 19:21 -2.00
Soccer / CSKA Moscow v Aston Villa : 26-Feb-09 17:00 26-Feb-09 18:50 -1.52
Soccer / Metallist Kh v Sampdoria : 26-Feb-09 17:00 26-Feb-09 18:48 -2.00
Soccer / Gremio v Universidad de Chile : 26-Feb-09 00:50 26-Feb-09 02:44 7.60

Sorting through the data it soon becomes obvious that 5 bets (in bold) account for most of the losses over the last seven days. The Carling Cup ended up 0-0 and had traded a green to recover the stake + 1p in hindsight I could have hung on longer and got a better price.

I still think a Lay bet on an odds on favourite can work on a regular basis. In most cases you don't even have to study the form.

Test cricket starts tomorrow and I'm not sure if I want to tie up stake money for 5 days. In any case, in the 4th Test I lost a bundle through some thoughtless trading mainly due to impatience.

I might just duck the first day and see how profit my Saturday football bets make.

No Betfair experiments tonight.

Well, maybe a little tickle on the Darts:

klaasen-v-wade-darts.gif

Klaasen v Wade in the Premier League Darts

It looks like Lay the odds on favourite and then trade in play also works in darts matches. Klaasen took an early lead and the odds for Wade drifted out. I went green when it was 4 games all. Wade went on to win 6-8. A good game to watch and a nice green trade to guarantee a profit to set against last night's losses.

Darts Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Darts / Part v T. Jenkins : 05-Mar-09 21:40 05-Mar-09 22:11 7.60
Darts / Mardle v Van Barneveld : 05-Mar-09 20:54 05-Mar-09 21:21 8.55
Darts / Taylor v King : 05-Mar-09 20:00 05-Mar-09 20:38 2.85
Darts / Klaasen v Wade : 05-Mar-09 19:00 05-Mar-09 19:46 7.06

Darts: GBP26.06 Total P&L: GBP26.06

Every bet was a Lay against the odds-on favourite and then traded in play for a green book.

Top bollixs...

-£3.18 from last nights adventure.

OK, I was lucky that ALL of the darts matches were close and I did bale early in the Taylor match, but overall... I've had worse nights!

This Betfair experiment is closed.

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