Yesterday's Tale of Misfortune, Lost Opportunities and Finally Walking on Sunshine

After suffering significant losses in the English Premier League yesterday afternoon, I took the AskJack Betfair Experiment offshore in the hope of recovering some of the money lost on Sunderland & Liverpool. It's still hard to believe that Liverpool took apart Man U with such ease. I felt sure that United would score early in the second half and my Lay on Liverpool would trade out in the green. However, things turned out in Liverpool's favour and my Jack-Joking Lay bet foundered. Sunderland (wonderland) were not even shooting blanks in the second half and this Lay also went tits-up. I'm not sure where the Bochum v B Munich bet came from as I have no memory of placing it... but that also went breast up.

Sunderland v Wigan : 14-Mar-09 16:55 -22.60
Bochum v B Munich : 14-Mar-09 16:21 -5.20
Man Utd v Liverpool : 14-Mar-09 14:43 -8.20
Man Utd v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 14-Mar-09 13:34 5.70

Offshore Raiding

Ath Bilbao v Real Madrid : 14-Mar-09 22:51 7.41
Juventus v Bologna : 14-Mar-09 21:20 6.01
Benfica v Guimaraes : 14-Mar-09 20:42 9.50
Cagliari v Genoa : 14-Mar-09 18:53 23.75
Dinamo Moscow v FC Moscow : 14-Mar-09 13:08 9.50

All of the offshore bets were placed while the games were in-play and a goal had already been scored (except the Moscow Lay bet on a Draw). My luck finally turned good and further goals were scored to enable an immediate green book Cagliari v Genoa was a late, late goal and that's why the profit was much better.

Football Profit £61.87 and Loss for Yesterday £36.00 Giving an Overall Profit of £25.87

I've had worse days.

Lay the odds-on favourite and then trade when things go badly/slowly for them does produce a regular green book position. However, when things go wrong it can turn out to be very expensive.

Today I plan to watch the Rugby 6 Nations with (oh no not again) England v France first up on BBC. In memory of my late Uncle John, I'm going to Lay France and roar home a famous English victory.

That's the plan, it might not be a good one... but what the hell!!

GREEN BOOK - I've seen so many games where England get into a winning position, only to throw it all away. Therefore, I've gone green and sacrificed £2 just in case the discipline breaks down and France surge forward and grab an unlikely victory.

Roaring on ENGLAND. Outstanding game that surely not even England can lose from 29-0 up? I'm still comfortable to take the green book and put aside £2 for insurance. France might be a totally different team in the second half.

Sad Tale of the Last Seven Days Betfair Experiment

Football Bets Last Seven Days Showing 40 Markets Profit/Loss (£)-41.96 and the Betfair experiment is in serious trouble. I have tried a number of Back bets rather than the most profitable Lay the Favourite and hope bet. Even when things go in your favour, a Back bet is hard to turn into a green book position. At least £35 of the losses were down to Back bets... the next seven days could finally wipe the bank out or prove the Lay concept. Time will tell.

Ath Bilbao v Real Madrid : 14-Mar-09 22:51 7.41
Juventus v Bologna : 14-Mar-09 21:20 6.01
Benfica v Guimaraes : 14-Mar-09 20:42 9.50
Cagliari v Genoa : 14-Mar-09 18:53 23.75
Sunderland v Wigan : 14-Mar-09 16:55 -22.60
Bochum v B Munich : 14-Mar-09 16:21 -5.20
Man Utd v Liverpool : 14-Mar-09 14:43 -8.20
Man Utd v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 14-Mar-09 13:34 5.70
Dinamo Moscow v FC Moscow : 14-Mar-09 13:08 9.50

Lens v Ajaccio : 13-Mar-09 21:24 2.37
Haladas v Ujpest : 13-Mar-09 19:51 -10.20
Kaiserslautern v Koblenz : 13-Mar-09 18:49 2.85
1860 Munich v FSV Frankfurt : 13-Mar-09 18:49 7.60
Polonia Warsaw v LKS Lodz : 13-Mar-09 18:37 -10.00

Man City v AaB : 12-Mar-09 21:38 -5.00
CSKA Moscow v Shakhtar : 12-Mar-09 18:54 2.52
Hamburg v Galatasaray : 12-Mar-09 18:49 6.17

Roma v Arsenal : 11-Mar-09 22:33 2.09
Porto v Atl Madrid : 11-Mar-09 21:45 -4.30
Barcelona v Lyon : 11-Mar-09 21:44 -2.70
Barcelona v Lyon : 11-Mar-09 21:37 -6.45
Man Utd v Inter : 11-Mar-09 21:36 -9.80
Man Utd v Inter : 11-Mar-09 21:35 -6.80
Al Jazira v Umm-Salal : 11-Mar-09 15:23 -10.00

Reading v Charlton : 10-Mar-09 22:01 -15.00
Swansea v Plymouth : 10-Mar-09 21:48 5.98
Sheff Utd v Blackpool : 10-Mar-09 21:40 -10.00

Avellino v Mantova : 09-Mar-09 21:36 4.27
Angers v Lens : 09-Mar-09 21:24 14.25
Duisburg v Nurnberg : 09-Mar-09 21:05 6.36
AGF v Vejle : 09-Mar-09 19:52 8.72
Slavia Prague v Banik Ostrava : 09-Mar-09 18:05 -4.20
Getafe v Malaga : 08-Mar-09 21:58 -10.50

Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb : 08-Mar-09 21:07 -4.80
Sevilla v Almeria : 08-Mar-09 19:53 -15.35
Everton v Middlesbrough : 08-Mar-09 17:57 5.79
Osasuna v Gijon : Match 08-Mar-09 17:54 -6.60
Bologna v Sampdoria : 08-Mar-09 15:57 -4.30
Chievo v Cagliari : 08-Mar-09 15:54 4.90
Arsenal v Burnley : 08-Mar-09 15:23 -5.70

In-Play Football Matches at Betfair
Sun 15th Mar
11:00 Hercules v Murcia
11:00 Spartak Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg
11:15 Olhanense v Portimonense
11:30 Feyenoord v PSV
13:00 Aachen v St Pauli
13:00 FC Kobenhavn v Esbjerg
13:30 Chelsea v Man City

This could turn out to be a BIG mistake, but at £2.80 liability I think it's worth a punt that City will produce a goal and hold out for a hard fought draw. That's the plan... listening in on 5 Live rather than San-fecking-tanta (rip off TV).
1-0 but it could have been a good bet if City had put their chances away. To be fair, Chelsea were the better team and another Lay goes tits-up.

13:30 Bristol City v Cardiff
13:45 Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan
14:00 Atalanta v Torino
14:00 Lazio v Chievo
14:00 Palermo v Lecce
14:00 Reggina v Napoli
14:00 Sampdoria v Roma

Roma have the ability to recover in the second half and get the equaliser. This bet has low liability and will in all likelihood produce a modest profit. My plan is to trade at 2-2 if I'm lucky...

Yep! ROMA score and I go GREEN:

This finished 2-2 but could have gone either way. Roma are my favourite Italian team because they always seem to come back and get a result. Good stuff!!

14:00 Siena v AC Milan
14:00 Udinese v Catania
14:30 SCR Altach v Red Bull Salzburg
14:45 Levadiakos v Panionios
14:45 Panthrakikos v Panserraikos
15:00 Celtic v Rangers
16:00 Aston Villa v Tottenham

Spurs came out with all guns blazing. Villa have the ability to come back and I expect this will be a draw. Huh, just like yesterday when I thought Man U and Liverpool would be a draw... football; I LOVE IT!!

Villa just don't have their shooting boots on. Heskey is virtually useless maybe another tits-up on the cards?

Halftime 0-1 and little prospect of change.

Yep, Spurs go 0-2 up and the Lay bet is dead in the water. Villa's team of tits put in another pathetic performance. Bugger, fart, shag the cat and give the wife a bone.

16:00 Hamburg v Cottbus

I've never heard of Cottbus, but if they can hold Hamburg for 22 minutes then it's worth a punt that they can at least go 45 minutes and maybe even score. Then I'll trade to a green book for a modest profit. That's the plan; subject to change.

Hamburg went 2-0 up before halftime and this Lay looks to be heading towards tits-up status. Pays yer money; takes yer chance. Who the feck are Cottbus? It would be funny if they scored twice in the second half, but extremely unlikely.

16:00 W Bremen v Stuttgart
16:00 Betis v Osasuna
16:00 Espanyol v Mallorca

Espanyol have returned a decent profit for me in the past. Mallorca look to be under pressure. When it goes 1-1 I'll trade a green book position and recoup the losses on the Hamburg Lay. That's the plan... and it's not a good one!

1-2 and I missed the trade... things are turning out to be a right "Weston" (super <night> mare).

Just My LUCK look how quick the game changed. Betfair was still suspended after Espanyol scored to equalise and by the time they got the market back online; Mallorca went 1-2 what a sad tale... in fact all my football bets have come to grief this afternoon.
40'Arango (Mallorca)
56’Callejon (Espanyol)
59'Cleber Santana (Mallorca)
70'Jurado (Mallorca)
71’I.De La Pena (Espanyol)

I think I'll bugger and fart it over to the West Indies and take a poke at England in the 20/20 cricket. Although Lyon v Auxerre looks tasty?

WELL; FECK-MY-OLD-BOOTS; I GOT A GREEN BOOK FROM THE MOST UNLIKELY POSITION!

82’Nene (Espanyol) nice one!


16:00 Gijon v Deportivo
16:00 Malaga v Sevilla
16:00 Santander v Numancia
16:00 Valladolid v Getafe
16:00 Lyon v Auxerre
16:30 Brondby v AGF
16:30 MTK Budapest v Diosgyori
17:00 Olympiacos v Iraklis
17:00 Thrasivoulos F. V Panathinaikos
17:00 Trabzonspor v Galatasaray
17:30 Chernomorets v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
18:00 Atl Madrid v Villarreal
18:00 Braga v Academica
19:00 Rosenborg v Valerenga
19:00 Santo Andre v Corinthians
19:00 FK Jablonec v Slavia Prague
19:30 Inter v Fiorentina
20:00 Almeria v Barcelona
20:00 Porto v Naval
20:00 Paris St-G v Marseille