Things could have been oh so different had Bremen not conceded a late goal or if they had managed to keep a clean sheet. Having learnt my lesson (at great cost) regarding risk and unlikely outcomes, I traded my Bremen green book for a more balanced return should a draw happen. Well, it did very late on St Etienne scored with almost the last kick of the game and made the final score 2-2.

The last 3 days football betting have not been good for "anti" favorite backers and my system of using low cost Lay bets on short price teams has become a little costly. In most cases the favourite team scored first and their price never went out in the market, leaving me with very little chance of making a trade. This is one area I'm going to work on and perhaps try to limit my exposure when things go tits-up.

Last 3 Days Profit & Loss in The Grand AskJack Betfair Experiment

Greyhound Racing: GBP4.56 | Soccer: -GBP37.36 Total P&L: -GBP32.80

Soccer Showing 1 - 19 of 19 markets

Market Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Aberdeen v Dunfermline : To Qualify 18-Mar-09 22:20 0.95
Soccer / Aberdeen v Dunfermline : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 21:37 -9.40
Soccer / St Etienne v W Bremen : Correct Score 18-Mar-09 21:21 -13.00
Soccer / St Etienne v W Bremen : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 21:21 17.38
Soccer / St Etienne v W Bremen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Mar-09 20:51 19.00
Soccer / AEK v Panserraikos : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 18:52 -3.70
Soccer / Grenoble v Monaco : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 17:50 -10.60
Soccer / Levski Sofia v Chernomorets B : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 15:18 -6.15
Soccer / Pohang Steelers v Kawasaki : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 12:21 -3.00
Soccer / Kashima v Shanghai Shenhua : Match Odds 18-Mar-09 11:51 -7.60
Soccer / QPR v Swansea : Match Odds 17-Mar-09 21:53 -4.60
Soccer / Arsenal v Hull : Match Odds 17-Mar-09 21:42 2.66
Soccer / Sharjah FC v Al Gharafa : Match Odds 17-Mar-09 17:06 -5.20
Soccer / Belasitsa Petrich v Slavia Sofia : Match Odds 17-Mar-09 15:19 -2.80
Soccer / Linfield v Glentoran : Over/Under 2.5 goals 16-Mar-09 21:40 -8.20
Soccer / Sandefjord v Brann : Match Odds 16-Mar-09 19:52 -5.90
Soccer / Vejle v Randers : Match Odds 16-Mar-09 19:51 4.75
Soccer / Pierikos v Kerkira : Over/Under 2.5 goals 16-Mar-09 17:53 -4.80
Soccer / Minyor Pernik v Litex Lovech : Match Odds 16-Mar-09 15:22 2.85

Greyhound Racing / Sheff 17th Mar : IV 500m 17-Mar-09 21:13 4.56

Today's In-Play Football Matches at Betfair With My UEFA Match Notes and Possible Bet Strategy

Note: These notes are not intended as "tips" and you might well lose a lot of money if you follow them. A lot will depend on how things actually pan-out while the games are In-Play.

Thu 19th March
13:30 Lokomotiv Mezdra v Minyor Pernik

17:30 Shakhtar v CSKA Moscow (UEFA)
1st Leg: FC Shakhtar Donetsk will look to overturn a 1-0 UEFA Cup Round of 16 first-leg deficit against PFC CSKA Moskva. Vágner Love scored the only goal of the first leg from the penalty spot after 50 minutes in Moscow, but Shakhtar looked the more threatening side for much of the game, with Igor Akinfeev the busier of the two goalkeepers. CSK only need to score one away goal to leave Shakhtar needing 3 goals to draw the match and 4 to win and that's a big ask. Shakhtar will probably defend in the first-half rather than all-out attack providing the score stays 0-0. I can see this going 2-1 with Shakhtar missing out on extra time. Maybe Lay Under 2.5 goals depending on the odds?

Bet matched: Under 2.5 Goals £10.00 @ 1.75 Profit £17.50 Liability £7.50

17:30 Zenit St Petersburg v Udinese (UEFA)
FC Zenit St. Petersburg's grip on the UEFA Cup looks to be slipping with the holders 2-0 down after the away leg of their Round of 16 tie against Udinese Calcio, Serie A's last contenders in Europe this season. The Russian side appeared set to leave the Stadio Friuli with a goalless draw, but an 85th-minute Fabio Quagliarella strike and Antonio Di Natale's penalty two minutes from time saw Udinese end a miserable week for Italian sides on
an up note, with three of their Serie A rivals having been knocked out of the UEFA Champions League in the first knockout round. The first leg was the two sides' first meeting in UEFA club competition. Udinese will be contesting their third game against a Russian side, having had their first taste of Premier-Liga opposition in the group stage of this season's UEFA Cup, winning 2-1 at FC Spartak Moskva. Zenit's record against Italian sides now reads P5 W0 D2 L3, with their two home games against Serie A opponents ending in a 3-0 defeat by Bologna FC in the 1999/00 UEFA Cup first round, and a 0-0 draw at home to Juventus in this season's UEFA Champions League. They have thus never won or scored at home against an Italian side. Zenit are currently 1.7 favorites with Udnese 5.4 given the history and Udinese needing only one away goal to make things virtually impossible for Zenit; a Back bet on Udenese at long odds might be a good option?

Bet matched: Udinese £5.00 @ 5.5 Profit £22.50

19:00 Man Utd Res v Hull Res

19:30 Galatasaray v Hamburg (UEFA)
Hamburger SV are preparing to feel the full force of Galatasaray AÞ's fearsome home support when the two teams meet in Istanbul, with their UEFA Cup Round of 16 tie delicately poised at 1-1. Ayhan Akman gave Galatasaray the lead in Hamburg, but Marcell Jansen replied after the break, with the visitors playing much of the second half with ten men following Emre Aþýk's dismissal for a professional foul. This looks like it might be a home win with a fairly high score. Hamburger must score to cancel out the away goal difference and could spring an early surprise. Probably best to leave this one until it goes In-Play.

19:45 Kettering v Oxford Utd

20:00 AaB v Man City (UEFA)
Aalborg BK face an uphill task if they are to deny Manchester City FC their third Danish scalp of the season, with a 2-0 loss in England last week having left them needing a big result in their UEFA Cup Round of 16 decider. First-half goals from Felipe Caicedo and Shaun Wright-Phillips put City firmly in control of the tie, with AaB failing to make the most of their chances as they returned to Manchester following their 2-2 UEFA Champions League group-stage draw at Manchester United FC earlier this season, which proves AaB are no "mugs" and just might spring a surprise. Lay City at odds-on and hope for an early AaB goal or 0-0 just before half-time and trade the ass off the position.

20:30 Braga v Paris St-G (UEFA)
Something has to give as SC Braga host Paris Saint-Germain FC in the second leg of their UEFA Cup Round of 16 tie, with a 0-0 draw in Paris having left both sides feeling reasonably optimistic. I just can not see this game staying 0-0 for very long. If PSG score the first goal then Braga will have to go on the attack, perhaps leaving them open to further break-away goals. Both teams will be looking for quick goals that's for sure. This could be a goal feast. Maybe Lay Under 2.5 goals depending on the odds?

22:15 Estudiantes v Deportivo Quito
00:50 Nacional (Uru) v River Plate
01:00 Seattle v New York Red Bulls